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Methodology

Shortlists

The purpose of Premonition is to provide shortlists of capable, proven Attorneys for selection by the client. It is not an absolute, it’s indicative. Factors such as Attorney availability, price, personal chemistry, etc, may all affect individual selection. A client may well feel that #6 of 20 is a better fit than #1.

Determining Wins

What constitutes a win is an arguable point. If you call both lawyers on a closed case, both will claim to have “won”. Every case is arguable. We consulted with a number of Lawyers and Judges asking them about the general winners and losers for various dispositions types(we have over 100 types in the system). There was broad agreement that judgements went for plaintiffs, dismissals for defendants and settlements shouldn’t be counted. All cases are arguable on an individual basis. Premonition is not a “rocket science” system where we strive for 100% unarguable analysis of every case, its function is to spot trends and outliers, which it does very well as data is “smoothed out” over 1,000s of cases.

Case Difficulty

Every case differs in difficulty. Premonition does not asses the difficulty of a case. Attorneys often claim to “only take the toughest cases” when explaining low Win Rates. Occasionally this is true. The United Kingdom has a “cab rank rule” preventing Barristers from cherry picking easy cases and the results are similar to the United States, so we not feel cherry picking is much of a factor. Premonition is not designed to identify the “surgeon” Attorneys that only work the hardest cases. However it does group cases with those of similar difficulty by using case type, sub type and parties. Tax Court is notorious for its low Win Rates against the IRS, however top performing Attorneys still stand out, not by their wins, but because they lose less. Cases group by court type, Appeals Court being a more rigorous black letter law venue than small claims, and by Judge, where certain cases, e.g. complex business claims are assigned to certain Judges. Over time
case difficulty variations are also smoothed out over large numbers of cases and Attorneys who only take easy cases will de-select themselves when approached.

Multiple Attorney Cases

Premonition picks the first listed Attorney for each side and ignores the others. The system is not perfect, but brings the least overall inaccuracies. In courts where Attorneys per party are not identified specifically, it uses an algorithm to predict which Attorney represents which party, then selects the 1st one for each side to analyze. Co-Counsel are not  automatically analyzed unless specifically requested by the client.

Gender and Diversity

Premonition matches names to census data and calculates the likely gender and race based on first and last names. On an individual basis, this is highly unreliable. However, at scale, accuracy approaches that of the census itself.

Overall data accuracy

In less than 5% of cases data entry Courthouse issues make it difficult to import every field.
Premonition data cannot be more reliable than the public record.

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